Here is a very short story: A penitent who was getting ready for a confession before a catholic priest compiled a list of his sins. He put the list in his pocket. On his way to the church, however, he was attacked by a knife-wielding robber who dispossessed him of everything in his pocket, including the list. The penitent threw his hands up to heaven and told God, “Dear God, my sins have been stolen. May they now become the robber’s sins, not mine, in Jesus name, Amen”. With that prayer, he turned around and headed home.
The results of June 9th elections of the principal officers of Nigeria’s National Assembly have generated so much furor, frustration, confusion, and even excitement – depending on who is looking at them. Huge volumes of pundit analysis and prognostications have since been generated. In all of those, almost all of those, there seems a consensus that the APC is in trouble; that the PDP is masterful in its craft; that President Buhari’s agenda items are seriously imperiled; and that the PDP is just four short years away from a comeback. I differ on all those summations.
Let me make this piece easy on my readers – by revealing its thesis from the outset: Contrary to the general panic, yesterday’s events at the National Assembly effectively drove the death nail into PDP’s coffin as a political party. But there is a caveat to that: it depends on how the APC manages this strange situation. It is in that caveat that I find my biggest worry. And here is why: You see, neither the APC nor the PDP is a political party; they are both social clubs. If APC were a political party, with sound-headed political strategists, they could squeeze some lemonade out of this seeming lemon. And the theory is a simple one: With Ike Ekweremadu as Deputy Senate President in what is supposed to be an APC Congress and an APC government, the locus of responsibility is no longer fixed on one party.
Effective yesterday, Ike Ekweremadu and the PDP bought into the change mantra that drove and fueled the March and April elections. By assuming the position of Deputy Senate President in an APC Congress, Ekweremadu implicitly joined the APC. He now has an obligation to lead and serve. He now must work for change. If he does not, if the PDP, having joined the leadership of an APC Congress, fails to work for the change that Nigerians voted for, or even worse, impedes change, it will have dug an eternal grave for itself. Like I said, it is a very simple and straightforward theory: Ike Ekweremadu and the PDP have assumed shared responsibility for the new direction.
Just last week, in Port Harcout, Rivers State, Ekweremadu was the keynote speaker in a post-mortem retreat organized by the PDP to lick the sore and open wounds that Nigerians enthusiastically inflicted on it in the last elections. In his keynote address, Ekweremadu tutored his party members on the mechanics and strategies of opposition politics. Questions today are: Where in Ekweremadu’s keynote opposition script does his deputy senate presidency fall? Did Ike hint his audience that he was working on remaining as DSP in an APC-led Congress? Did he bother to explain to his audience how he plans to lead legislative opposition from within an APC structure? Did Ekweremadu and his party agree on the wisdom of opposing change while being part of change? Did they have a common understanding on whose interest is served by Ekweremadu’s DSP position – PDP’s or Ekweremadu’s? Very important questions, but ones to which I am sure the PDP has not adverted its mind.
If APC is smart, yesterday gave it a very important tool. It, unwittingly, shared responsibility for the huge work ahead with the PDP. It also forged a defense for potential failures. If things do not go well; if change is not delivered as promised, the APC could blame it on Ike Ekweremadu and the PDP elements in the National Assembly. For Ekweremadu, just what is going to be his role as the DSP in an APC Congress? He has a choice: Be a good Deputy Senate President and work with the APC Congress, or become insubordinate and go rogue on the Senate President and the APC majority. Either way, it’s a catch-22. If he works with the APC majority and pushes the change agenda, APC looks good, and will win reelection in 2019. If he balks at the APC majority, chooses the path of insubordination and roguery, and thereby impedes the massively voted new direction, he and his party risk further alienation in 2019.
Question, the all-important question, then is: With Bukola Saraki going renegade on his supposed APC party, and horse-trading with PDP elements, to secure a critical majority to become Senate President, what difference does it make what choice Ekweremadu decides to make? For all intents and purposes, given the dynamics and intrigues of yesterday’s elections, Sen. Bukola Saraki could well be said to have been reclaimed by the PDP. So, if Ekweremadu remains a good and loyal ally, and subordinates himself to his new boss, Bukola Saraki, will he have advanced an APC agenda or a PDP agenda? Will the PDP in 2019 make the argument, regardless of how strange and tortured it might seem, that it has always, essentially, been a PDP-led Senate? Is it possible that in the last general elections, Nigerians ended up with motions without movement? Did we simply rearrange the deck of the Titanic? We probably did. We bought a new house but forgot to change the locks. Now, the old occupants have crept and sneaked their way back in.
President Buhari…
What role did Buhari’s hands-off approach play in bringing about this seeming debacle? Was it a smart strategy to have kept him off the sausage-making politics of the NASS leadership elections? Is Buhari and his handlers overcompensating for his past military resume? Are they overplaying his new found democratic persona? Has Buhari assumed the leadership of the APC or is he still distancing himself from a fundamentally flawed political platform upon which he was elected? With all the corrupt elements that constitute the APC, many of whom cross dressers from the wildly discredited PDP, it is no secret that Buhari’s relationship with the APC was an inconvenient one. He did not want the APC; he needed it. That merger was Buhari’s only path to Aso Rock. But the tall man’s conundrum is the reconciliation of what he stands for as an individual and what ‘his’ party stands for – realistically and perceptually. Buhari is a very decent man. He ran an anti-corruption campaign. He has a track record in that department. But the APC, as is the PDP, is a cesspit of corrupt politicians. How does Buhari lead the APC? How does the Pope lead a council of midnight witches and wizards and sorcerers? That is Buhari’s conundrum.
Buhari’s handlers must do a reality check. He either leads or he does not lead the APC – and Nigeria. The APC, unfortunately, is a pigsty. Buhari must shed his white caftan and get in that mud. It is not going to be pretty, but Nigerians did not vote a pageant queen in March. He must take it to the corrupt and selfish elements in his party and the country at large. Given what happened yesterday at the NASS elections, Buhari’s handlers must develop a strategy that keeps him in the graces of the Nigerian masses, while exposing the corrupt politicians in the Legislature as the public enemies that they are. If Buhari’s handlers, especially his media team, are able to construct a populist message, one that rallies the Nigerian masses behind their president, then it does not matter who presides or deputizes the Senate. It does not matter who speaks for the House of Representatives. They just need to amplify Buhari’s change and anti-corruption mantra. Properly done, it could become Nigerians versus corrupt politicians.
A revolution may have begun in Nigeria. For the first time, a sitting president was rejected and ejected at the polls. Nigerians are tired of corruption. They had it up to their necks in the Jonathan government. But there was little they could do about it – other than wait for elections – because Jonathan was massively corrupt. He was not only corrupt, Jonathan bred and shielded corrupt politicians. With Jonathan out, and Buhari in, Nigerians have an opportunity to take it directly to corrupt politicians, including the cow milkers in the National Assembly. Buhari’s handlers need only develop a popular anti-corruption message, one that rallies the masses behind their president. Nigerians must be allowed the right of protest. Nigerians must be free to spill in the streets and hallways of the Three-Arm zone without being intimidated or harassed by law enforcement. Fortunately, Buhari is not just the president, he is also the commander-in-chief of the Nigerian armed forces. He must drill it into the heads of his service chiefs, including the Inspector General of Police, that the rights of the Nigerian masses to peaceful protest must be respected and protected.
When Nigerians are allowed to take it directly to their politicians, shaming them and demanding accounts, things will change. Nigerians, in the full glare of local and international media, should be able to sit out and block the hallway of the National Assembly with placards and T-shirts bearing the names of corrupt lawmakers. Nigerians should be allowed to block and throw eggs at corrupt and thieving politicians without being molested by the police. It is done even in civilized societies. Until citizens get serious with thieves who parade as politicians, Nigeria will remain a very sorry state.
So, Ike Ekweremadu and the PDP might have bought a bad market yesterday, depending on how President Buhari and the APC handle it. Like the penitent whose list was stolen, Ekweremadu and the PDP may have assumed the duty for change and new direction. They now must lead. It is now a shared government, shared responsibility. Buhari’s media team must get to work immediately and rally Nigerians behind their president. They must develop a popular message that casts corrupt lawmakers and politicians as the enemies of the people that they truly are. President Buhari must utilize his position as commander-in-chief to advance his change agenda. He needs the masses to do that. He must encourage a culture of protest, not criminalize it. Nigerians should be able to shame thieves who call themselves politicians. When that is done, it may not matter who is what, as everybody will be forced to work toward a common national goal.
Vitus Ozoke, PhD
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