Preamble
First, a caveat. I am not a card-carrying member of any political party in Nigeria. I have nothing against partisanship though, which is the constitutional thing in Nigeria. However, I have much preference for developmental politics, which is all encompassing, and confers greater good and benefits to a greater number.
My brief analysis hereunder has nothing to do with the pernicious tribalism that is destroying the fabric of co-existence in Nigeria. I have my friends across the length and breath of our country, Nigeria. However, my submission has everything to do with grabbing the legitimate opportunity to go for the low-hanging fruit when it is there for you – it is a universal strategy every reasonable and rational being will hasten to embrace.
If the South-easterners are wise, as the claim always goes, then their voting in 2019 general elections MUST be a STRATEGIC decision. It must not be about the individual they admire because of loud promises, or the party they cherish because of affiliations; it must be totally strategic! The question should always be: what is (are) our strategic interest(s) and objective(s)?
The candidate and party whose position will make the South-east realise whatever its objective(s) is, should be considered in the voting arrangement. No doubt, political miscalculations and immaturity have always been the bane of the South-east, as far as one can point to. Here comes the time to be politically sagacious and strategic!
If the objective is, and I want to believe it is, to produce a Nigerian president of South-east extraction in 2023, then the South-east has no choice but to exhibit ultimate wisdom and sagacity in their voting style and pattern, come February 2019. Their voting approach should be devoid of inimical sentiments. Like Donald Trump (US 45th president) says: “America first” – the refrain for the South-east this time around should be ‘South-east objective first.’
The Calculation and The Strategy
It seems to me a choice between certainty and uncertainty. Let us look at two available routes to take one to a named destination:
Route One has a description of certainty – you must reach the destination no matter the odds, and the bonus point is that you must land there earlier.
Route Two has a description of uncertainty – your reaching the destination depends on where the odds weigh, and the sour point is that even if the odds favour you to get there, your landing will happen much later, if at all.
Even a child in the kindergarten will quickly grab Route One!
Now, see the way I think things are likely to play out:
We have candidate Atiku Abubakar and candidate Muhamadu Buhari as the main contenders. There are others too in the race. Nobody should ignore them, but you know what I mean, given where we are in our political evolution and development.
If candidate Buhari emerges the winner in 2019, he must vacate the presidency in 2023 – whether he says so or not; whether he likes it or not. The constitution says so, and the Nigerian constitution is supreme, if I am right; and I stand to be corrected. At least, that is what we profess. Anything short of this means inviting chaos to the country, and even worse repercussions to himself. Nigeria has grown beyond the whims and caprices of sit-tight power mongers. Obasanjo can tell you more about this in his third term misadventure.
The presidency then goes to the South. The South-west has had its slot in Obasanjo – 1999 to 2007. The South-south had its slot very recently in Jonathan – 2011 to 2015. The next slot is ‘irrevocably’ and ‘unarguably’ for the South-east in (…) whoever they choose – 2023 to 2031.
If candidate Atiku wins, the only thing that can stop him from completing his eight constitutional years is if the electorates vote him out in 2027. Even at that, the North will insist on a Northerner completing the next four years. They pushed for it when President Yaradua died. And who says they won’t fight for it to the end this time, if something like that happens again, especially with their Jonathan experience. Otherwise, Atiku will surely go for a second term to which he is constitutionally entitled, even if he makes a false promise now to do only one term. We have seen this in all Nigerian politicians, without exception.
Anyone believing that any Nigerian politician, not the least, the power-hungry Atiku, will just willingly (Mandelally) vacate office after one term – when he or she has a constitutional right to two terms – can believe anything. The South-east should not allow folly and stupidity to overtake their better sense of strategic reasoning and rationality!
A less ambitious Jonathan threw the so-called PDP zoning arrangement to the winds when the opportunity knocked at his door, and you think a more power-hungry Atiku will act so gently and differently. I hear you!
It goes without saying that after eight years of Atiku, both the South-east, the South-South, and the South-west, will have equal stake and agitation for the presidency. A lot does happen with the effluxion of time, especially in politics. Can the South-east get it then, given the intrigues and treachery that will be at play? Methinks not, and that will be the price of delay; the price of not quickly going for the low-hanging fruit now.
Summary and Conclusion
If the South-east can rally round and vote for candidate Buhari (however they hate him, however they despise APC), they will achieve their objective in 2023. That is, if the Presidency is that objective. This is because Buhari and his people will find it difficult to abandon them at that time. South-east objective first. If the strategic calculations and permutations have not started, they ought to start right away!
If the South-east votes largely for candidate Atiku and he wins, they will not realize their objective in 2023, and may not have it for a very long time to come. In fact, it will become ‘Atiku objective first’ before ‘South-east objective’ – a clear case of perpetual lack of political sagacity.
Again, if the South-east fails to vote largely for Buhari, and he wins without their support, the logical tendency is for Buhari and his people to go ‘above and beyond’ to hand the presidency over to the South-west in 2023. Mind you, the South-west has started their own strategic calculations along this line now. If they succeed, the South-east will resign again to their usual cry of marginalization – something they inflicted upon themselves by not being politically sagacious.
This has nothing to do with whether Buhari is hated or loved. It is not about clapping for, or despising Atiku. It is not about welcoming APC as the ruling party. It is not about praising PDP and others as opposition parties. It is about the strategic interest of the South-east. This is what other zones do to achieve whatever their objectives are. It is time the South-east got into that strategic trajectory, and got dressed in that strategic garb!
I think I have laconically made my case for strategic voting – a path the South-east should consider seriously, come February 2019 general elections. This is my view. It is not a campaign for any candidate. It is a strategic action one expects and enjoins the South-east to take in order to realize their objective come 2023 – South-east objective first.
In my brief discussion above, one can observe my strategic avoidance of the use of the terms Hausa/Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba, Ijaw, Urhobo, Efik, etc. These terms appear to evoke unwarranted hatred in the polity; howbeit we all have our origins, despite silly pretensions. My discussion on how we all can benefit from, and thrive in, a “divided” Nigeria, will be topic for another day.
Okey A. Ogboo, FCA. Calgary, Canada.
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