In less than three days to Nigeria’s presidential election, in which eligible voters will troop out to elect the individual that will pilot the affairs of the country for the next four years, the two leading political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, are presently in a cat race in Osun State to outsmart each other.
While the APC is desirous of winning the State for the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, purposely to justify its controversial victory during a rerun of gubernatorial election of September 27, 2018, which produced Governor Gboyega Oyetola, the PDP is frantically working to prove otherwise.
Of course, the countdown to the September 22 governorship election, where the PDP defeated the ruling APC with over 300 votes at the first ballot gave a serious signal to the APC of its waning popularity and influence among the electorate.
Meanwhile, the Senatorial by-election in Osun West district, in which the APC suffered ignominious defeat by losing nine, out of ten local governments in the zone to PDP also indicated the dwindling influence of the ruling APC in the State.
Moving forward, analysts have described the September 27 rerun election, which retained APC in power as a greater factor of resentment against the party by the electorate, who were seriously embittered by the turn of events.
Dr Ishola Rabiu, a political scientist in one of the private institutions in the state opined that subsequent elections in the state might be a referendum for the two leading parties.
He asserted that the ruling APC, by its action in the recent gubernatorial election in the state might suffer greater electoral disgrace as an expression of grievances towards the party.
“You could see for yourself the mood of the people when the results of the rerun election were announced and the candidate of the APC declared as winner, that was the first uncelebrated victory I ever witnessed in my democratic experience.
“Already, the ruling APC is seriously battling to survive in Osun West and East going by its defeat in the zones during 2017 by-election and the just concluded gubernatorial election.
“Obviously, with the renewed vigour of PDP in the state, coupled with controversial posture of the party at the national level and personality of Buhari himself, the pendulum might swing in the direction of PDP.
In the same vein, a public commentator and political thinker, Mr Wasiu Sekoni has argued that unlike Buhari, Atiku has a family affinity with Osun, as his first wife, Titi Abubakar hailed from Ilesa, in the East Senatorial district of the state.
“Many things are working for PDP and its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in Osun State, aside from the influence of his party in the three senatorial districts that make up the state, his wife, Titi, hailed from Ilesa, in the East, which is presently generating sympathy for PDP”.
The political atmosphere in the state also signifies the influence of certain personalities as determinants of voting pattern of the electorate in favour of PDP, as it has been observed in the previous elections.
In the same way, the personality of the former Deputy Governor of the State, Senator Iyiola Omisore, was said to have influenced the outcome of the September 27 rerun poll in favour of the APC, many believe that some political figures in the state could make PDP to coast home to victory in the forthcoming presidential election.
Starting with West senatorial district, the political dexterity and economic strength of the retired Assistant Comptroller General of Customs, Chief Fredrick Fadahunsi, , who is also the Senatorial candidate of the PDP has been considered as a determining factor, likewise a member of the House of Representatives , Chief Wole Oke, and an oil magnate and philanthropist, Mr Suraj Ajilesoro, and a host of other juggernauts.
The same goes for the central zone, where a revered religious leader and business mogul, Alhaji Tunde Badmus and the former chieftain of the APC, Alhaji Fatai Diekola are seriously working for the PDP.
In the West senatorial district, the likes of the former governorship aspirant and CEO of Mutual Assurance PLC, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, the former National Commissioner of National Population Commission(NPC), Akogun Lere Oyewunmi, coupled with socioeconomic prowess of the Adelekes will surely spree surprise in the direction of PDP.
In the final analysis, considering a free, fair, and credible poll, where the will of the people is not subverted through a compromised electoral process, PDP may grab Osun State from the stronghold of the APC, unless voters look the way, maybe due to the popularity president Muhammadu enjoys in the South West, in addition to the influence of APC national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
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