After months of preparation, vigorous campaign by political parties and their candidates, postponement in scheduled dates, accusations and counter-accusations, the 2015 presidential election is here, and in less than 24 hours, Nigerians will be heading to the polls to choose who among the 14 presidential candidates who have secured the tickets of their parties as the next president of the most populous black nation on earth!
Saturday’s presidential election is arguably the most important in the history of Nigeria as a nation and one that will go down in record as the most fiercely fought. It is the most important because it is the first presidential election after the nation celebrated its first 100 years of nationhood. It is the most important because Nigerians are going to the polls to elect a new leader in a time of war, the war against Boko Haram insurgents. It is the most important, because Nigerians have never at any point been this politically aware and passionate about elections as it is been witnessed at the moment.
The 2015 presidential election holding tomorrow, as pointed out, will also be the nation’s most fiercely contested and one that may not produce an overwhelming victory for any of the candidates. Students of history are quick to point out the fact that at no point in the history of Nigerian elections has a ruling party or an incumbent been given the kind of fight and scare as is being experienced at the moment in an election year. Since the return to constitutional democracy in 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, has always had a field day, going into national elections with so much comfort and confidence, a situation that made a leader of the party to once boast that the PDP will rule Nigeria for the next 60 years.
As their slogan implies, the coming on board of the All Progressives Congress, APC, into the nation’s political firmament after a successful merger of the legacy parties, has proven to be a game changer in Saturday’s election. The party, through the combination of deft political maneuvers, extreme and productive use of the media and propaganda, has been able to work itself into the consciousness of Nigerians, many of whom see the party and its presidential candidate as the change they have been waiting for.
The current discontent in the land and the clamour for change, notwithstanding, Saturday’s election will surely be a photo finish contest between the two main contenders, incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and a former Military Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari.
President Jonathan, a former Vice President to late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, is coming into Saturday’s contest with Nigeria’s famed incumbency factor, the ruling party’s national spread and hitherto behemoth structure across the length and breadth of the country, the gale of endorsements coming his way and adoptions by some other opposition parties. For General Buhari, the widespread discontent and clamour for change in the land seems to be his most potent weapon in Saturday’s election. Coupled with this, is the expected block votes from the Northern and Southwestern states which his party, the APC, has as strongholds.
Though Saturday’s presidential election may be predictable on regional basis, it is however instructive to look at how Nigerians may vote in the 36 states of the federation and the FCT, as block votes may not necessarily come in handy in some geo-political zones.
South East
The South East traditionally has remained a PDP zone and it is expected to remain so in Saturday’s election. Save for Imo State where the PDP candidate may be in for a surprise defeat, Anambra, Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi would be easy wins for Jonathan. Though with popular clamour for change and the influence of the Imo state governor in the zone, General Buhari is expected to perform a lot better than he did in the zone in 2011.
In 2011, President Jonathan garnered a total of 1, 145, 169 votes in Anambra, 480,592 votes in Ebonyi, 882,144 votes in Enugu, 1,175,954 votes in Abia and 1,406, 289 votes in Imo State. Though there have been questions over the validity of some of these figures, the introduction of the card readers may sort out some concerns of bloated figures in favour of the PDP candidate. But overall, it is still safe to say Jonathan is practically safe in the South East.
South South
The South South geo-political zone presents an interesting scenario for two reasons. First, it is the home zone of President Goodluck Jonathan and one that has always been home of the PDP. Secondly, since the return to constitutional democracy in 1999, the South South zone has always given the PDP almost 100% of total votes cast in elections. These may have however changed with the strong in-roads the opposition APC is making into the zone. Aside Edo and Rivers State that have APC governors at the helm of affairs, the party has also made quality incursions into Bayelsa State, the president’s home state. The party has been waxing strong in Bayelsa, may be due to the influence of former Governor, Timipre Silva.
Sylva has lately become a vociferous critic of the Jonathan administration, who not long ago apologized to Nigerians for presenting Jonathan to the nation. Also of note is the large turnout party supporters during the APC presidential campaign in Yenogoa, the state capital.
Though it may be preposterous for Gen. Buhari to expect an outright win in Bayelsa, it will surely not be a walkover for Jonathan. In Edo State; APC may be coasting home to victory, courtesy of Governor Adams Oshiomhole’s iron grip on the politics of the state. Oshiomhole has been a vociferous critic of Jonathan and his administration and will do all within his power to deliver the state to APC.
For Rivers, the APC looked good at a point and everything pointed to a major upset for the PDP, as Governor Rotimi Ameachi continued to consolidate the presence of the party in the state until his deputy defected to the PDP and potentially weakened the strength of the party in Rivers State.
The reaction of Ameachi and the party machinery in the state to the defection of Engr. Tele Ikuru, also paints the picture of a major setback and a destabilization of its planned consolidation in the State. As things stand, the state will be a major electoral battle ground between President Jonathan and General Mohammadu Buhari.
For Cross River and Delta States, President Jonathan appears to be solidly on ground and looking good in coasting home to victory but the same cannot be said of Akwa Ibom State, which had hitherto been seen as a safe haven for the President. The less than perfect way with which the incumbent governor of the state, Chief Godswill Akpabio handpicked his successor, leading to disharmony within the rank and file of the party, may turn out to be decisive in the presidential contest.
The dramatic appearance of former Governor, Victor Attah and a member of the PDP Board of Trustees, BoT, Chief Don Etiebet at an APC governorship campaign in the state, have no doubt hurt the supposed invincibility of the PDP in the state, thus making Akwa Ibom another battle ground between President Jonathan and General Buhari.
On the whole, the South South zone is expected to still go the way of President Jonathan though without the traditional near 100% of total vote cast.
South West
The South West zone has always been a complex one when it comes to politics and elections. It is a zone no one can confidently predict, as the people of the zone proud themselves as highly politically enlightened. In 2011, against the run of events, President Jonathan had a landslide win in five of the six states in the region, despite the fact that the dominant party in the zone then, Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, had a presidential candidate. Though there were allegations of a tradeoff, it was however not expected that things would go the way it went.
2015 however seems very different from 2011, as the major promoters of the candidature of General Buhari and fiercest critics of the President Jonathan’s administration are from the zone. It is a known fact that the quest of the retired General for the presidency is highly popular online and the bulk of online activists working for the election of Buhari are also from the zone.
Aside the popular clamour for change, the South West zone has an axe to grind with President Jonathan because of what the zone calls marginalization of the zone by the current administration. This feeling, prevalent, especially among political elites in the zone may prove decisive in the way the zone will vote and the eventual outcome of the Saturday’s election. And with the vice presidential candidate of the APC coming from the South West, the zone may just want to vote for a ticket that will best protect its interest.
The Above notwithstanding, the presidential election in the South West may not be a walk over for the APC candidate, as President Jonathan is expected to still make an impressive showing in states like Ekiti, Ondo and Lagos States. Ekiti and Ondo States are PDP states while in Lagos, the candidature of Jimi Agbaje in the April 11 governorship election may provide necessary breather the president needs in the state. Also the large number of South South and South East indigenes resident in the state may prove a significant difference in state.
North Central
The North Central geo-political zone will no doubt be a battle ground for both candidates, as the zone may turn out to be the decider in Saturday’s poll. Kwara and Nasarawa States are APC states while Kogi, Benue, Plateau and Niger are PDP states. However, the Northern sentiment and discontent with the PDP administrations in states like Benue and Kogi States may sway a sizable number of votes for General Buhari in the PDP controlled states in the zone. On the whole, the two candidates may come out of the election neck to neck in the zone.
North West
Going by the 2011 presidential election, General Mohammadu Buhari is expected to have a landslide victory in all the states in the North West. The vice presidential candidature of the current Vice President, Namadi Sambo and whatever impact it may hope to have on the electorate in the zone have been dwarfed by the cult-like following Buhari enjoys in the zone. Though PDP controls states like Jigawa, Kaduna, Kastina and Kebbi, it is yet to be seen what impact their governors can make in delivering their states for President Jonathan.
North East
Just like the North West, the North East geo-Political zone may be another walkover for General Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress, APC. The zone that has been ravaged by the Boko Haram insurgency for over four years, aside the clamour of a return of the presidency to the North, may decide to queue en-mass behind General Buhari who has promised to end the insurgency immediately he assumes power as president.
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