A few weeks ago, a masked person claiming to be the second-in-command of the Boko Haram terrorist sect addressed a press conference where he announced the declaration of a ceasefire by the sect.
The ceasefire, according to him, followed ‘a series of meetings with government officials and was because the group was ready for peace talks with the government.
Also, there have been renewed calls for a presidential amnesty that will be total and unconditional in nature to be given to the members of the sect, after the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III mentioned the suggestion in Kaduna.
The ceasefire agreement was expectedly greeted with scepticism by the Nigerian military, who gave the sect a period of one month during which there had to be no attacks on any public place or military installation before they would take them seriously. But the Nigerian military did not even have to go that far because the self-acclaimed leader of the sect, Sheikh Abubakar Shekau disowned the said deputy as not being known to him in a video which was published online.
As for the calls for amnesty, they have recently been squarely rejected by President Goodluck Jonathan who has said that “amnesty cannot be given to ghosts”. In other words, he was asking that the Boko Haram militants first identify themselves and make themselves known prior to any talks of amnesty.
However, I am of the opinion that neither of these two is the solution to the insurgency, even in the short-term, and these are my reasons:
One, Boko Haram as a group is no longer one homogenous entity, as there have been splits and breakaways from amongst them.
An excellent example of one such breakaway group is Ansaru, which has been in the news quite frequently in the past few weeks, having taken responsibility for an attack on a contingent of the Nigerian Army heading to Mali for peacekeeping, and for two incidents of kidnappings of foreigners. Definitely, any talk of amnesty or ceasefire for Boko Haram does not extend to them, especially as little is known about them, their leadership and their objectives.
Even within what is left of Boko Haram, not every militant is said to submit to the authority and leadership of Shekau, and there is bound to be opposition to the idea of ceasefire or accepting amnesty.
Secondly, Boko Haram has grown to be a cover for unscrupulous people to commit their atrocities.
For example, in the city of Maiduguri, where the insurgency is strongest, it is an open secret that a lot of the killings and bombings that occur are done to settle personal and political scores and have nothing to do with the terrorist sect itself.
During the administration of the immediate past governor, Ali Modu Sheriff, a lot of idle youths were ‘empowered’ as political thugs and were also perpetually under the influence of drugs.
As time went on, three events coincided which led to the proliferation of small and light weight arms among members of the sect: the 2011 elections, which saw politicians arming their thugs in order to influence which way the elections went and who were not disarmed or engaged gainfully after the elections; the Libyan crisis which saw a lot of small arms and light weapons being pushed southwards across the Sahara, of which a sizeable number fell into the hands of these youths; and even as far back as 2009, when after the first clash between Boko Haram and the security forces, when its leader was killed, there was a failure to properly mop up the weapons of the Boko Haram members that were killed, which these political thugs collected.
All these have led to the ‘democratization’ of violence in Maiduguri and elsewhere. These gunmen do not answer to anyone, hence, they would neither not be covered by any ceasefire agreement agreed to by Boko Haram nor likely to take advantage of an amnesty offer.
It should be recalled that in October 2011, the Joint Military Task Force in Maiduguri gave a one-month period during which they asked people in possession of weapons to turn them in without being prosecuted. Yet, a lot of guns still abound in the city.
Thirdly, like I have always maintained, it is very important that we listen to the other side of the table. No matter the efforts of the government at offering amnesty, if it keeps getting rejected by Shekau and his band of misfits, it amounts to futility.
Once again, Shekau has expressed confidence in gaining victory in the ‘divine war’ he is leading; hence, there is absolutely no need to concede defeat by accepting amnesty or acceding to a ceasefire agreement.
Our best bet of ending this insurgency in the short-term is the military option with the use of intelligence, where these militants are either captured or eliminated. This is the reason I applaud the decision to send Nigerian soldiers to Mali to help in fighting the alliance of Islamists who intend to turn Mali into their base, because from there, it is a short jump from which to attack Nigeria.
Also, so long as their sources of funding are not cut off, they would continue to be a menace.
In the long-term, providing jobs and economic growth will help in preventing the creation of an environment that will allow terrorism to fester.
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