The year 2015, with the alleged prediction by the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Nigeria would disintegrate, and global torchlight beamed on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) preparations for the general elections, inherited a myriad of uncertainties that cut across the economy and polity.
On the economy; the year 2015 started off on a rocky foot with Nigeria’s economic outlook showing signs that the economy was at risk of macroeconomic challenges following dyad volatility in global oil prices and Nigeria’s foreign exchange, hence would struggle to achieve a reasonable growth rate (See PwC and AfDB 2015 reports). The federal government (FG) had beaten its chest that it had got all its ducks in a row with robust economic buffers to sustain the economy in the face of any economic storm, however, the effect of global oil price volatility on the economy, as evident in the rapidly declined (and continued declining of) government exports and revenues, within a short period of time revealed that the FG’s claim of having robust economic buffers to withstand oil price shocks was a mere rhetoric and as such was empty of substance and evasive on distinctly outlined strategies.
On the polity; the uncertainties that heralded the year 2015 manifested in the deteriorated (and continued deterioration of) security situation in Nigeria and in INEC’s preparations for the general elections. The Islamic dissident group, Boko Haram, reared its ugly head with intensified application of guerrilla-warfare-type of attacks in the north. Though it was obvious that the Nigerian military was incapacitated to fight Boko Haram, but to accept that was a bitter pill for the FG to swallow. However, to reveal how weak the Nigerian military was the insurgents spat in the face of the Army with repulsive attacks in Baga (Baga massacre) between January 3 and 7, 2015. While the FG and Nigerian military engaged in their usual denial of casualties and distortion of facts of the incident the survivors whose families had been ruthlessly slain and villages destroyed resorted to self-help in neighbouring country, Republic of Chad, and in islands of Lake Chad. The weakness of the Nigerian military provided the insurgents the fertile ground to fine-tune their modus operandi of attacks. That did not only gain the insurgents credence into the world of terrorism but also earned Boko Haram (arguably) the most dreaded terror group in the world.
Like the coming of Messiah, 2015 general elections were highly anticipated. As the wind of political campaigns made its waves across the states in the country, emotions began to run high among the people. In his New Year message to the country, Reverend Father Mbaka rebuked (ex-president) Goodluck Jonathan, hence called on Nigerians to vote for change- which represents the motto of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Father Mbaka’s message seemed to have opened a can of worms nobody was willing to open. However, opinions were divided among the people as to the substance and veracity of the message. While many people saw it as unconventional, hence called for his head on a plate, considerable large number of people saw his message as a legitimate clarion call that should be given ear to. Even within the Catholic Church, some priests/bishops saw his message as a violation of hierarchical ritual in episcopacy.
While the dust stirred by Father Mbaka’s New Year message was settling, the controversy over the West African School Certificate (WASC) of the then presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB), reared its ugly head with the Director of Army Public Relations, Olajide Laleye, publicly stating that no copy of GMB’s WASC was in custody of the Nigerian Army. That revelation from the Nigerian Army put flesh on the bones of the controversy, with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) threatening INEC to address the controversy squarely or face a motion of no confidence from the party. In a swift move, PDP instituted a legal proceeding, pressing perjury charges against GMB. That generated fear across the country that GMB might be disqualified from participating in the presidential election. However, all the fear was put to rest when Justice Adeniyi Ademola adjourned the case until after the election.
Though the much anticipated 2015 general elections were (initially) scheduled to hold on February 14 and 28, at the eleventh hour INEC, in exercising its statutory power, postponed the elections based on the security advice it received from the office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) to postpone elections. The ONSA had advised that the Nigerian military could not assure the safety of electoral officers and voters in the northern states where Boko Haram was sending rain of attacks, if INEC continued with the planned elections; hence the military would need some time to wage the attacks by Boko Haram. Opinions were not only divided in public as to the essence and rectitude of such admonition from ONSA, but also predominantly pointed accusing fingers at Goodluck Jonathan of using his political power of incumbency to interfere in the affairs of INEC. There was a popular notion among pundits that PDP had seen that electoral calculus and political permutations were not in favour of Goodluck Jonathan, hence needed to buy time to tie up all the loose ends. That view was not unconvincing given that odds were stacked against Goodluck Jonathan with the dwindling oil price, free-falling naira, increased attacks by Boko Haram on innocent Nigerians in the north and flagrant corrupt practices to name a few.
When Professor Attahiru Jega announced the new dates for the general elections- March 28 and April 11- all the political parties had no option but to sheath their swords and look at the bigger picture, which was to have free, fair and credible elections. Though 2015 general elections generated worrisome tensions during the voting process across the country with myriads of issues associated with dysfunctional smart card readers, permanent voters cards (PVCs), and logistics to name a few, however, in all, history was made! While (president) Muhammadu Buhari won the presidential election with 15.4 million votes (52.5%), (ex-president) Goodluck Jonathan followed with 12.9 million votes (43.8%). Prior to president Buhari’s victory, there was a myth that the (then ruling) PDP was unbeatable. There was also a myth that an incumbent president in Nigeria possessed electoral invincibility. Those myths were broken in 2015!
Nigeria’s 2015 general elections revealed interesting trends. One was that despite the time lag between accreditation process and actual vote casting, the electorates exhibited remarkable commitments to exercise their franchise. Two was that voters’ commitments to exercise their rights to vote trended toward their consciousness to participate in electoral process as manifested in the percentage of accredited voters who cast their votes. Three was evidence of variation between the percentage of registered voters who collected their PVCs and the percentage of voters who collected their PVCs and cast their votes. To put in context, in Ogun State, while about 44% PVC collection was recorded, about 75% of those who collected their PVCs voted. Abia State recorded about 83% PVC collection, but about 36% of those who collected their PVCs voted. Nassarawa State recorded about 98% of PVC collection, but about 44% of those who collected their PVCs voted.
On one hand, these variations strengthened the views that faulted INEC’s preparations for the general elections in relation to distribution of PVCs, and INEC’s efficiency to conduct the general elections. On the other hand, the variations persuaded serious concerns as to whether the inability of the electorates who failed to vote was as a result of the actions or inactions of INEC or sheer culture of apathy among the electorates- which is not unusually symptomatic of a country that has witnessed trajectory of gross defilement of its people’s right to vote and be voted for.
At the inauguration of the 8th National Assembly (NASS) history was also made! Since Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (1999 – present) the positions of the president and deputy president of the Senate as well as the speaker and deputy speaker of the House of Representatives have always been occupied by members of the ruling party. Though it seems like a legislative ritual, however, it is never a constitutional requirement. The myth that the leadership of a political party in Nigeria possesses political invincibility and rules the roost in all the affairs of the party helped to sustain this ritual. But this myth was broken with profanity when Senator Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara decided to contest for Senate president and speaker House of Representatives respectively, hence in violation of APC’s order. The APC leadership had anointed Senator Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila for Senate president and speaker House of Representatives respectively. And the ritual was also broken when Senator Ike Ekweremadu of PDP emerged as the deputy president of the Senate. With the ritual and myth broken, it was obvious that odds were stacked against APC’s choices for NASS leadership positions.
When president Buhari was sworn in on May 29, 2015 there was popular expectation from the general public that members of his cabinet would be people of no questionable character, given his reverend pedigree in war against corruption. But no one had expected that it would take president Buhari (over) four months to set up his cabinet. The absence of executive cabinet signalled deficient economic policy, which saw the economy stunting. That earned president Buhari the nickname- “Baba Go Slow” from his critics. However, when president Buhari (finally) released the list of his nominated ministers in October, 2015, people’s expectations were not only marred, but also their hopes in the mantra, change, were dashed, as the list was perceived as a spinoff of old and well-known individuals with questionable characters.
Prior to the release of the list of nominated ministers, president Buhari had made his first tranche of political appointments. His appointments were greeted with strong reactions from the public. While opinions were divided across the lines of argument as to whether those appointments reflected the federal character principle as enshrined in the constitution, it was obvious that some parts of the country, particularly the southeast, had prejudice already formed against president Buhari’s ability to lead a united Nigeria. So, when the call for an independent state of Biafra by a separatist group called the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) reared its ugly head it was (arguably) not far-fetched that there was a link between the call and preconceived prejudice of the majority of the people in southeast.
The arrest and detention of Nnamdi Kanu, the director of a pirate radio station called Radio Biafra, in Lagos by the Department of State Services (DSS) generated (and continued to generate) outcry across the country. Though DSS had charged Nnamdi Kanu to court with treasonable charges against him, but he was granted bail by the court. However, he was unable to fulfil his bail conditions, which accounts for his continued detention in prison. Nnamdi Kanu’s detention in prison triggered massive protests by his supporters across the five southeast states- Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo- and PortHarcourt. Also his lackeys across the world showed their solidarity with protests wherever they were. Popular opinions heaped piles of blame on Buhari-led APC government for mal-handling the arrest and detention of Nnamdi Kanu, hence suggested for release of Nnamdi Kanu with no conditions, as it was feared that his continued detention might lead to an untoward situation. Some alarmists even suggested that it might trigger another Civil War.
While the protests heightened, Nigeria was being hit by tripods of crises: fuel scarcity, free-falling exchange rates, and chronic bombings by Boko Haram. In the face of these crises, Nigerians had expected president Buhari to at least keep them informed of how the economy was being run. But president Buhari could not keep Nigerians in the loop because he was frequently travelling abroad. With his frequent foreign trips, president Buhari earned himself another nickname “Junketer” from his critics. As president Buhari engaged in his numerous foreign trips, the trails of his media conferences/interviews followed him home. Many of his responses to the media questions were rather given in a very maladroit way, which made many Nigerians to begin to doubt the veracity of APC’s mantra, change, and question the intellectual ability of president Buhari to lead Nigeria.
Though Nigeria’s 2015 general elections were adjudged, in overall, to be free and fair by domestic and international observers, however, the level of electoral mal-practices- ranging from snatching of electoral materials to mass thumbprints on ballot papers, to commodification of PVCs to name a few- put a big question mark on the credibility of elections held across the country. Not too long after the general elections were concluded, election tribunals across the country were inundated with election petitions challenging the outcome of many gubernatorial and NASS elections. As election tribunals across the states began to treat election petitions the long-bladed arm of the judiciary cut short the tenure of some governors, senators and representatives. However, in public discourses, there seems to be a tidal of wave of opinions, which suggest that the ruling party (APC) is using election tribunals to nullify elections of elected PDP members, as it appears that no APC governor or senator or representative has been affected by the on-going nullification exercise. Though the validity of these opinions remains yet to be fully ascertained as the long-blade arm of the judiciary continues to swing across the states, but it will be difficult to ignore that some elements of judicial prejudice characterize the judgements that have given so far.
Contrary to the judgement that upheld Governor Samuel Ortom’s (APC) election in Benue state, (Governor) Darius Ishaku’s (PDP) election was nullified in Taraba state and Aisha Alhassan of APC was declared winner, hence making her the first democratically elected female governor in Nigeria. Another history was made!
Few weeks to the end of the year 2015, the curtains of corruption scandals, particularly the $2.1 billion arms deal during (ex-president) Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, drew open with new revelations to corruption scandals putting flesh to the bones of the alleged corrupt cases at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). With the turnout of events in the (on going) arms-gate, especially the revelation by Edo State governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, that the former minister of finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has question(s) to answer in the arms deal having approved the funds from the excess crude account without appropriation by NASS, it appears that EFCC’s (on going) investigations have only scratched the surface. As EFCC continues to expand the lists of its invitees many fingers are crossed in public.
No doubt, with the events that played out in the year, 2015 will have a special place in Nigeria’s history book. Sadly, the year that started with message of hope from the then ruling party (PDP), despite the difficult economic challenges, seems to be ending with message of doom from the (now) ruling party (APC), despite the wide-spread change mantra. Recently, the federal government has forewarned Nigerians that the in-coming year 2016 “is going to be tough,” hence government is going to make “tough decision.” It is not clear yet what the decisions are. But whatever the decisions are, it is my view that government should keep in mind that addressing security challenges and tackling ethnic differences in the country remain top priorities. Though the federal government appears to be making progress with the coalition force against the insurgents, however, the same impetus should be applied to addressing ethnic differences across the country. And this can be through policy dialogues.
In conclusion, citizens have roles to play in shaping the direction of the economy in the coming year(s). Majority of Nigerians have become more conscious of political processes and resolute to engage with the government than before. But this (sadly) exists only at the federal level. Too much attention is focused on the federal government that state and local governments are having a field day in misappropriating state funds and mismanaging state resources. Even at the federal level too much attention is directed towards the executive arm of government, hence making the legislature and judiciary unaccountable and opaque. I am hopeful that if attention is spread equally across the three tiers and arms of government, then by next general elections, Nigerians will not be led up the garden path too easily by the politicians with rhetoric like “breathe of fresh air” or “change.”
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