At the beginning of 2014, Nigeria seemed to be on a promising path, with macroeconomic fundamentals showing signs of stability. The year 2014 started off with excitements about Nigeria’s centenary anniversary- 100 years since the amalgamation of North and South Protectorates in 1914- coupled with Nigeria’s new seat at the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member. All these generated hypes, which signaled good tidings for Nigeria in 2014. In the spirit of centenary celebration, 2014 was anticipated to be a decisive year in the unity of Nigeria. As promising as 2014 signaled, the tension brewing on the political scene following the birth of All Progressives Congress (APC) – a union of Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and All Nigeria’s Peoples Party (ANPP) – coupled with the rising dreadful activities of insurgents (Boko Haram) who believe that Western education is taboo, continued like monsters, to rear their ugly heads.
Against the permutations that pundits had predicted for 2014 some coups de theatre turned out, beginning with the suspension of the central bank governor, Lamido Sanusi (now the Emir of Kano). As Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics, rightly said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Making predictions about Nigeria is like opening a Pandora’s box.
Though Sanusi’s exit as the central bank governor was anticipated, as he was due to leave office in June 2014; the (quick) suspension of Sanusi by President Jonathan came as a shocker. President Jonathan’s bad sense of timing persuaded the belief that Sanusi’s estranged relationship with the presidency over oil subsidies, in which he (Sanusi) exposed huge shortfalls in oil revenues, orchestrated President Jonathan’s decision. The statement from the presidency revealed that Sanusi was suspended on “various acts of financial recklessness and misconduct.” However, it was obvious that President Jonathan was in a rush to bare his teeth. As usual, all the brouhaha over Sanusi’s suspension and the alleged missing oil revenues (in billions of Naira) hit the public scene like a thunderbolt, but vanished like a fart in the wind.
Centenary celebration came with its own coup de theatre. Though many Nigerians were aware of government’s swanky and grandiose preparations ahead of the centenary anniversary, which generated public outcry as many Nigerians perceived the lofty expenditures as wasteful, most Nigerians did not anticipate that the list of 100 centenary award recipients would be inundated with names of corrupt individuals, who ideally should to be convicts. The centenary award was a revelation of cycle of aberration which the modern Nigeria has been entangled in, where people who are deserving of celebration are unsung, while those who have plunged the country into hardships with their massive looting of public funds receive all the accolades.
Though the National Conference had been long time coming, it finally came through in 2014. In March, over 490 delegates, who cut across the six geo-political zones, including the private sector, civil society organizations, academics, professional bodies, youth organizations, and community leaders, gathered in Abuja for the (long awaited) National Conference led by (retired) Justice Idris Kutigi. Prior to the Conference, it was expected that the Conference would impact hugely on both the superstructure (polity) and substructure (economy), hence was pegged as one of the major events that would shape the year 2014 in Nigeria. But amid that expectation were barrage of criticisms and cynicisms that summarily cast off any success attached to the Conference and wonkily suggested that the Conference would be full of confusion, chaos and disunity, and in the end would yield no positive results.
Rumormongers did not fail to speculate that the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) wanted to use the Conference to change the constitution to its advantage ahead of 2015 general elections. The National Conference took place; some people made money out of it as anticipated, it stimulated discussions, opinions were articulated, and a report containing about 600 recommendations was produced and submitted to the federal government for further actions. With the level of hype the Conference generated coupled with the amount of money that went into planning and execution of the Conference, Nigerians had anticipated that government would make the dust fly as soon as the report was submitted. But implementation of the report is still in the dust, which brings home the fate of past reports in Nigeria.
Though the insecurity orchestrated by the activities of Boko Haram was anticipated in 2014, no one, not even the spiritual prophets, saw the tragic incident that befell Chibok community on April 2014 coming. On that unfortunate night, the dark forces (Boko Haram) against Western education and by extension against women empowerment in the north disguised as security guards, attacked the Government Secondary School in Chibok, Borno State, and abducted over 200 girls.
Given that public issues in Nigeria have become more politicized, which brings home why political parties frequently indulge in politicizing public issues, the presidency- a typical complicit in the act- failed to acknowledge that any girl was kidnapped from Chibok until considerable (some say 19 days) days had elapsed, hence giving the abductors ample time to execute their plans up to the hilt. The initial disavowal of the abduction of Chibok girls by the presidency ruined the chances of rescuing those girls. Though this is a bitter pill for the presidency to swallow, it has to be said. The presidency did not only make a hash of the incident, but also a mockery of the parents whose daughters were kidnapped.
While the presidency and the ruling party were busy trading words with the opposition party as to the veracity of Chibok incident, some concerned Nigerians having seen the tell-all sign that the Chibok incident might be swept under the carpet quickly initiated the Bring Back Our Girls campaign. The campaign, with the hash tag #BBOG, spearheaded by Mrs. Obi Ezekwesili spiraled on social media, particularly on twitter, and generated great global attention. From an unknown town in Borno State, Nigeria, Chibok was brought on the world map, courtesy of Cable News Network (CNN). The global endorsement of the campaign from well-meaning individuals, including Mitchell Obama and Angelina Jolie, was the icing on the cake.
Despite the efforts of the ruling government to detract and sabotage the Bring Back Our Girls campaign, the campaign continued to wax stronger, hence seemed not be in danger of losing momentum. It has been 8 months since the abduction of the Chibok girls (some girls managed to escape), yet the government is not able to bring back the girls, perhaps the luck at the presidency is not good enough to bring the girls back.
Despite government’s rhetoric of being on top of the situation in the north east, Boko Haram group continued to unleash their terror on innocent Nigerians. While government was busy with the rhetoric that it would end the terror that were increasingly meted out by the deadly Boko Haram on Nigerians, with zero commitment and political will to do so, the militant Islamist group was having a field day devising new tactics for attacks on the military and villages, and using such tactics to seize and acquire territory.
In May, 2014, Boko Haram began to apply guerilla-warfare-type of attacks. These tactics obviously put a spanner in the works of Nigeria’s military, as the group repeatedly carried out successful attacks against the military which made it possible for them to establish their Islamic caliphate over numerous towns in the north east. As typical of the ruling government, the President kept re-assuring and hoping on the grace of God. It seems like Mr. President’s luck is no longer permeable with God’s grace. No doubts, the military have made some successful efforts in containing the deadly activities of Boko Haram, but sadly, the fragments are not enough to make a burst.
At the electoral scene, two gubernatorial elections were expected to hold in 2014 in Osun and Ekiti states. Interestingly, the two elections were expected, on one hand, to test (again) the credibility of Jega-led Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) in conducting a free, fair and credible election, and on the other hand, to test the ability of APC to contend for control of power in the southwest with PDP which would determine if APC was poised to take over the seat of power in Aso Rock in 2015.
Contrary to prior political permutations that were put forth by analysts where the outcome of the two elections was anticipated to lead to political cataclysm through series of court cases, both elections took everybody by surprise, as (incumbent) APC shockingly lost to PDP in Ekiti state but retained its leadership in Osun. Both elections revealed that APC does not have yet the sufficient political clout to win PDP clearly in 2015 federal elections in the southwest. Also, sequel to Ekiti election, a new argot- stomach infrastructure- was introduced into the political scene. It has now become a buzzword, but more importantly has proved (arguably) to be a persuasive tool to win electoral votes.
When the outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus disease (EVD) was reported in March 2014 in West Africa, nobody knew that Nigeria would be hit with the virus. Even though the rate at which the wind of epidemic was blowing across Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea was enough signal that Ebola could hit Nigeria given Nigeria’s strategic position in Africa, government failed to take adequate measures to ensure that checks were in place, particularly at the airports and borders, to detect possible Ebola cases. It was not too long (in June) Nigeria released the result of its rebased gross domestic product (GDP) which put Nigeria above South Africa as the largest economy in Africa that the first Ebola case was reported in Nigeria.
At the time Patrick Sawyer, Liberian-American, landed in Lagos airport in July 2014 no one was aware that he was ill with the Ebola virus. Subsequently, he fell seriously ill starting a chain of infections that did not only put Nigeria on the list of Ebola infected countries, but also tested the Nigerian health system. Thank goodness the Lagos State government moved swiftly and decisively to contain the virus through contact tracing, isolation, treatment and public enlightenment. The federal government equally added momentum to the fight against Ebola by declaring a state of emergency and calling the country to action. The commitment of health workers, spearheaded by the Ministry of Health which provided all the necessary support, was impressive.
Even though Nigeria lost 7 patients out of 19 infected patients, the country was able to beat off Ebola virus and prove to the world that through decisive leadership and a highly coordinated and quick response Ebola virus could be contained. In October, 2014 Nigeria was officially declared Ebola free by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The birth of APC did not come without ripostes from the ruling PDP. Right from inception APC was seen as a threat to PDP’s dominance in Aso Rock. At alarming rate PDP governors, lawmakers and top guns defected to APC and vice versa. With this threat PDP was out to throw a monkey wrench in the plans of APC to take over the seat of power in Aso Rock in 2015. The political permutations in the National Assembly took a twist turn when the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, in November 2014 decided to defect from PDP to APC, a move that took PDP members in the house by surprise. That defection was long time coming but they (PDP clan in the House) were not smart to see the handwriting on the wall.
Tambuwal’s defection to APC signaled a coup de grace for APC; having gained the leadership as well as majority of the House, APC appeared to have raised PDP’s alert level to the highest. That was a bitter pill for PDP to swallow. The presidency in order to show its teeth was acting through the Inspector General of Police (IGP) who in attempt to show his diehard allegiance to the presidency took the law into his own hands. The IGP had withdrawn all the security details of Aminu Tambuwal, arguing that by defecting to APC he (Tambuwal) had lost his seat in the House of Representatives, hence should be deprived of the privileges due to him.
Following the request of President Jonathan asking for an extension of the state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, three states ravaged of all their values and valuables by Boko Haram, the Speaker had convened the House prior to the due resumption date, to enable the House to attend to Mr. President’s request. The political water having been polluted by blood stains from the APC-PDP power tussle; the sharks were ready for a feast, the security operatives acting under the directives of the IGP barred Aminu Tambuwal from gaining access into the National Assembly, a move that was immediately restrained by the APC clan who had accompanied the Speaker, hence resulting in the ugly incidents ranging from gate climbing by House members to Police using tear gas on APC members. As despicable as the act of gate climbing might seem, the unprofessional conduct of the Police was repulsive, unpardonable, and deserved condemnation.
A year that started off on a promising path seemed to be ending on shaky ground given the uncertainties surrounding the falling oil prices which have begun to show unfavourable implications on the economy. The current year-end economic outlook leaves fundamentals as forecasted for 2014 in doubt. As the volatility in oil prices continues, the instability in foreign exchange characterized by a depreciating Naira continues to rub salt in the wound; Naira continues to show great signs of distress and no clear sign of recovery.
Though government has assured that measures are in place, in terms of buffers, to weather the looming economic storms, it is clear that both fiscal and external buffers are currently low and urgently begging for rebuilt. Government has started dealing with the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure with the drastic budget cuts, unfortunately in capital budgets, and introduction of more taxation. Sadly, government’s continued silence on reducing the costs of running the Presidency and National Assembly raises a big question mark over government’s sincerity in reducing recurrent expenditure and continues to beg the question, if the austerity measure the government has adopted is merely targeted on low-income earners. It is my submission that for Nigeria to overcome the looming economic hardships, the elites must imbibe the spirit of sharing their prosperity to help share the burden of those at the bottom of the pyramid, while everyone must actively and sincerely put hands on deck to build the economy.
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