While the tribunal process contesting the election of President Muhammadu Buhari at the 2019 Nigeria poll is still ongoing, the United States announced the imposition of a visa restriction on individuals who undermined the democratic process in Nigeria.
Nigeria, in its 20th year since the return to democracy, has not figured out how to conduct free and fair elections. President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead up to the elections promised and reassured free and fair elections but the 2019 election which he won was plagued with thuggery, violence, vote-buying and logistical challenges.
The European Union election observation mission pointed to “systemic problems” in its report on the election and recommended electoral reforms. It noted that the elections were marked by “severe operational and transparency shortcomings, electoral security problems and low turnout.”
Although the US Department of State has said its restriction is directed at individuals and not the newly elected government, the presidential candidate of the opposition party, Atiku Abubakar points at the restriction as more evidence that indicates the election was rigged.
Though the EU just about stops at the commenting and giving both priority and non-priority recommendations, the US Department of State wants to punish individuals who have “operated with impunity at the expense of the Nigerian people and undermined democratic principles and human rights.”
Though it isn’t immediately clear the people that would have their visas restricted. Is it the thug who stole the ballot box, or the insufficiently armed and overpowered Police officer charged with maintaining order at the polling centre, the sponsor of the thug or the benefiting politician.
But whoever it is, the visa restriction by the US looks to be a stronger deterrent than Nigeria’s weak electoral laws and institution has ever mustered.
During the election, 1119 arrests were made in relation to electoral offences but there has been no report of any conviction yet and if history is anything to go by there will be no conviction. After the 2015 general elections, there were 61 electoral offence prosecutions, but no convictions.
INEC decried the lack of “robust and clearly defined institution that will be responsible for arrest, investigation and prosecution of electoral offenders.” A situation that the yet-to be-passed Electoral offence commission bill could have tackled.
The overstretched Nigeria Police set up the Special Election Investigation Team (SEIT) to ensure effectiveness in the handling, investigations, processing and prosecution of electoral offences but there has been no report/result on their activity.
SBM intelligence recorded more than 600 fatalities in the aftermath of the election with the South-South recording the highest number of incidents.
Some of the incidents involved people dressed in military uniforms especially in Rivers State, where INEC had to suspend the election due to insecurity.
Observers from the United Kingdom reported military interference in the election process which the Nigerian Army denied.
The army worryingly claimed it was the activity of “some selfish individuals who recruited thugs dressed in military uniform” to harass and intimidate their opponents.
Violence is a frequently used tool to intimidate voters and drive apathy to the polls. The 2019 polls witnessed the lowest turnout since it returned to democracy in 1999. A paltry 34.75% of voters turned out to vote during the presidential elections. With the break out of violence in certain areas, the number dipped even further a week later during the state elections.
Prior to the election, there were fire outbreaks at three of the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission, with the latest coming few days before the first scheduled date of the election.
INEC claimed it will not “succumb to the antics of arsonists whose motive might be to create fear in the minds of voters and sabotage the conduct of the 2019 general elections.”
After an initial postponement, the elections held a week after the earlier scheduled date due to logistical challenges.
While indices in the survey conducted by SBM intelligence show that there is still some level of trust in the electoral system, major reforms need to be had with a view at the more decisive 2023 election. With the incumbent completing the tenure, the stakes will be higher and the competition will be keener.
Akin Adepoju writes from Lagos
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